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Operational Methodology

How HazardSignal builds each daily risk picture

This page explains the daily inputs, what risk probability represents, and the limits of the model.

MonitoringEscalationIncident
Mission modeIncident

Active detections or dense hotspots are present. The interface shifts into incident emphasis automatically.

Priority focus: Serik
DashboardAlertsMethodology
ENARTR
Mission modeIncident
Priority focusSerik
Core inputs

Core inputs

Each run combines satellite, weather, terrain, and recent fire activity layers for Antalya districts.

Satellite indicators such as land surface temperature, vegetation stress, and night-light activity.
Meteorological signals including air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation.
Static context such as elevation, slope, land cover, settlement proximity, and historical fire corridors.
What risk probability means

What risk probability means

Risk probability is the model estimate that local conditions resemble fire-prone patterns for the current run window.

Higher values mean stronger alignment with recent fire-conducive conditions.
District summaries aggregate local pixels into a district-level operational signal.
The platform combines probability, area coverage, and hotspot detections when forming alerts.
What the model does not mean

What the model does not mean

The signal should not be interpreted as a guaranteed fire event or a substitute for field command.

It does not confirm that a wildfire will occur at a specific place and time.
It does not replace civil defense, forestry, municipal, or emergency authority instructions.
It should be used with live observations, local reporting, and official incident procedures.

Decision-support note

HazardSignal is a decision-support tool and does not replace official emergency or civil defense instructions.